Convective scale modelling—the issues

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Monday, 18 January 2010: 4:30 PM
B218 (GWCC)
Ewen McCallum, UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

We are entering a stage where convective scale modelling will form the basis of local forecasting systems. Significant skill has been demonstrated in certain situations particularly where the larger scale forcing is clear cut or topographic forcing is a primary driver. However these models also bring with them challenges, such as false realism and false alarms in more random convective events.

This talk will highlight these issues showing examples of severe rainfall events over the UK and how these were handled by the Met Office 1.5 km model. It will also examine how products from these systems should be communicated to customers and what ‘layer' of sophisticated post processing will be necessary to highlight risk.