Optimum routing of aircraft in the presence of meteorological hazards: an approach taking forecast uncertainty into account

A methodology has been devised and demonstrated for determining the optimum route for an aircraft flying in the presence of hazards such as clear air turbulence (CAT). The prediction of hazards such as CAT is subject to considerable uncertainty: the method takes the uncertainty into account. In particular, the demonstrated accuracy of forecasting CAT is used in the identification of the optimum route.

The definition of optimum route used in the method is a route which minimises cost, where the cost takes into account both the cost of encounters with CAT (which will happen even when the optimum route is followed because of uncertainty in the forecast) and the cost of avoiding CAT (which will occur because the aircraft is choosing a route which is not the cheapest to fly).

The information needed to calculate the optimum route includes

(a) information on extra distance flown for each avoidance strategy,

(b) information on cost of extra distance flown

(c) information on frequency of actual CAT encounters for each avoidance strategy (depends on accuracy of forecasts)

(d) information on cost of CAT encounters

The presentation will include current estimates of all the types of information ((a) to (d) above).