Verification of wind forecasts with special attention to ramping events
This paper suggests metrics useful for evaluating wind forecasts in a manner that is useful to both meteorologists and the wind energy industry. Wind ramps are identified through the analysis of first- and second-order differences. Ramps of observed events are first matched to the nearest available forecasts. With matched pairs of forecast and observed events, attributes such as magnitude, duration, peak time and initiation time can be compared. With these comparisons, it is important to consider the potential magnitude of the improvement due to changes in the timing of forecasts. Some changes results in small improvements while others result in more significant changes. Strictly looking at timing errors can obscure this.
These types of metrics are illustrated using wind forecasts created for Xcel Energy for wind farms located across their service area.