20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Program Chairs: Marina Timofeyeva , NOAA/NWS ; Barbara Brown , NCAR ; David Bright , BPA ; Cécile Penland , NOAA/ESRL

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 17 January 2010

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 17 January 2010


Short Course Registration

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 17 January 2010


Annual Meeting Registration Begins

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 17 January 2010


Weatherfest

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 17 January 2010


First-Time Attendee Briefing
Location: B314 (GWCC)

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 17 January 2010


Annual Meeting Review and Fellows Awards
Location: B314 (GWCC)

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 17 January 2010


Fellows Reception
Location: Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)

Monday, 18 January 2010

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 18 January 2010


Registration Open

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 18 January 2010


Presidential Forum
Location: Thomas Murphy Ballroom 1 and 2 (GWCC)

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 18 January 2010


Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 18 January 2010

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Mitigation and adaptation to climate change
Location: B216 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 24th Conference on Hydrology; the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Committee on Climate Services; the Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the First Environment and Health Symposium )
Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC
  11:00 AM
J1.1
Regional climate modeling and decision aids
Glenn Higgins, Northrop Grumann TASC, Chantilly, VA; and D. Apling, R. Alliss, and H. Kiley
  11:15 AM
J1.2
Bounded rationality in climate change policy development
Amanda H. Lynch, Brown University, Providence, RI; and R. D. Brunner

  11:30 AM
J1.5
Climate Change Adaptation in Southwest Ecosystems
Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
  11:45 AM
J1.3
Seeing the world through a political lens: the connection between weather and climate change perceptions and beliefs
Hank Jenkins-Smith, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. H. Goebbert, K. E. Klockow, M. Nowlin, and C. Silva
  12:00 PM
J1.4
Advancing Climate Adaptation in Wildlife Conservation
Amanda Staudt, National Wildlife Federation, Reston, VA; and D. Inkley, P. Glick, B. Stein, N. Edelson, and J. Kostyack

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 18 January 2010


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 18 January 2010

Recording files available
Session 1
Statistical analysis in the geophysical sciences I
Location: B305 (GWCC)
Host: 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Andrew W. Robertson, Columbia University; Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL
  1:30 PM
1.1
  1:45 PM
1.2
Method to Improve Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessments Using Cokriging
Michael J. Dvorak, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and A. Boucher and M. Z. Jacobson
  2:00 PM
1.3
Varying-coefficient space-time models for short-term wind forecasting
Amanda S. Hering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and M. G. Genton and P. Pinson
  2:15 PM
1.4

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 18 January 2010


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)

Poster Session
20th Conference on Probability and Statistics Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)
Host: 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL
 
218
The equatorial QBO influence on the northern winter extratropical circulation
Hiroaki Naoe, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Shibata

Handout (567.0 kB)

 
219
Real-time objective analysis of surface data at the Meteorological Development Laboratory
Jung-Sun Im, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn and J. E. Ghirardelli

Handout (712.5 kB)

 
220
Comparing NWS POP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers
Eric Bickel, The University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. Floehr

Handout (1.1 MB)

 
221
Estimating the error of the BCDG analysis of surface data
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. S. Im

Handout (902.1 kB)

 
222
Logit transforms in forecasting precipitation type
Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Handout (750.9 kB)

 
223
Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Using Joint Probabilities
M. Tugrul Yilmaz, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD; and T. DelSole

 
224
Crop Yield Forecast Models that Maximize Explanatory Power of Climate Based Inputs from Satellite Observations
Alan Basist, Climate Predict Consulting, Raleigh, North Carolina; and J. Sivillo, S. Shen, and C. Lee

Handout (42.9 kB)

 
225
Stochastic Models of Severe Weather Watches and Warnings
Christopher Myers, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz

 
226
Inter- and Intra- Seasonal Variability of Summer Thunderstorms determined by the ANOVA
Paul J. Croft, Kean University, Union, NJ; and W. Woubneh and C. Rosa

 
227
Orographic Signature on Multiscale Statistics of Extreme Rainfall
Mohammad Ebtehaj II, University of Minnesota, Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory, National Center for Earth Surface Dynamics, Minneapolis, MN; and E. foufoula-Georgiou Sr.

 
228
Efficient kriging for real-time spatio-temporal interpolation
Balaji Vasan Srinivasan, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. Duraiswami and R. Murtugudde

Handout (707.2 kB)

 
229
Toward regional climate-change downscaling of weather statistics using a hidden Markov model
Andrew W. Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and A. M. Greene, P. Smyth, and S. Triglia

 
230
Inclusion of New Variables in Bias Correction and Downscaling for NAEFS
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and Z. Toth

 
231
 
233
Extreme value analysis of precipitation series in the south of Iberian Peninsula
Jose Manuel Hidalgo-Muñoz, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Granada, Spain; and D. Argüeso, D. Calandria-Hernandez, S. R. Gamiz-Fortis, M. J. Esteban-Parra, and Y. Castro-Diez

Handout (3.0 MB)

 
234
Verification of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts from various agencies for Duluth, MN
Joshua Cossuth, Florida State University/COAPS, Tallahassee, FL

 
235
Probabilistic freeze forecasting in the Midwest and Florida
Eric R. Wenke, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 18 January 2010

Recording files available
Session 2
Statistical analysis in the geophysical sciences II
Location: B305 (GWCC)
Host: 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS
  4:00 PM
2.1
Typical Day Meteorological Data in Support of ATD Modeling
George D. Modica, AER, Lexington, MA; and S. Lowe, T. Nehrkorn, J. Wensell, J. Baldwin, G. McMullin, and R. Hoffman
  4:15 PM
2.2
Statistical analysis of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean
Constantin Andronache, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA
  4:30 PM
2.3
Statistical Structure of the Global Significant Wave Heights
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and Y. H. Kuo and G. Galanis
  4:45 PM
2.4
Determining radiative heating profiles from satellite data using statistical classification and cluster analysis
Nathaniel Beagley, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. A. McFarlane, J. H. Mather, and J. E. Flaherty
  5:15 PM
2.6
GiST, A model for generating spatial-temporal daily rainfall data
Guillermo A. Baigorria, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and J. W. Jones
Recording files available
Joint Session 2
The emergence of new scientific partnerships
Location: B312 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 24th Conference on Hydrology; the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology; the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the First Environment and Health Symposium )
Chair: Genevieve E. Maricle, Arizona State Univ.
  4:00 PM
J2.1
Climate Adaptation Partnerships in Semiarid North America
Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
  4:30 PM
J2.3
Partnership between the Državni hidrometeorološki zavod (DHMZ) and the University of Oklahoma (OU)
Ivan Cacic, Državni hidrometeorološki zavod, Zagreb, Croatia; and B. Ivančan-Picek, B. Lipovšćak, K. Pandzic, B. Terek, V. Tutiš, G. Zuccon, K. Crawford, R. A. McPherson, K. L. Nemunaitis-Monroe, and J. T. Snow
  4:45 PM
J2.4
  5:00 PM
J2.5
The Weather And Society *Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) Program: yesterday, today, and tomorrow
G. Thomas Behler Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gruntfest, J. Demuth, J. K. Lazo, and E. Laidlaw
  5:15 PM
J2.6

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 18 January 2010


Opening of the Exhibit Hall with Reception
Location: Exhibit Hall B1 (GWCC)

Tuesday, 19 January 2010

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 19 January 2010

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Data Collection, Interpretation, Assimilation, and Stewardship
Location: B306 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres; the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 24th Conference on Hydrology; and the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Chair: Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD
  8:30 AM
J3.1
The Impacts on Air Traffic of Volcanic Ash from the 2009 Mt. Redoubt Eruption
Alexander Matus, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and L. A. Hudnall, J. J. Murray, and A. Krueger
  8:45 AM
J3.2
UrbanNet: Urban Environment Monitoring and Modeling with a Wireless Sensor Network
Paul J. Croft, Kean University, Union, NJ; and P. Morreale, F. Qi, A. Tropek, and M. Andujar
  9:00 AM
J3.3
Network of Weather and Climate Observing Networks (NOWCON)
Samuel P. Williamson, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Stailey and S. J. Taijeron
  9:15 AM
J3.4
Comparison of COOP and new HCN-M temperature products
John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL
  9:30 AM
J3.5

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 19 January 2010


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 19 January 2010

Recording files available
Session 3
Extreme events in weather, water and climate
Location: B305 (GWCC)
Host: 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Robert D. Bornstein, San Jose State University; David Bright, BPA
  11:00 AM
3.1
Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves
Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. M. Furrer and M. D. Walter
  11:15 AM
3.2
Cooling of maximum temperatures in coastal California air basins during 1969–2005: monthly and extreme value trends
Allison Charland, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and B. Lebassi, J. Gonzalez, and R. Bornstein
  11:30 AM
3.3
A climatology of heavy midlatitude rainfall across the United States from 1949–2000
Elaine S. Godfrey, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Crawford and M. Richman
  11:45 AM
3.4
A novel financial market structure for mitigating hurricane risk
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

11:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 19 January 2010


Exhibits Open
Location: Exhibit Hall B1 (GWCC)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 19 January 2010


Kuettner Symposium Luncheon
Location: B208 (GWCC)
  12:00 PM
B1.1
Joach Kuettner—A Man in Love with the Sky
Einar Enevoldson, The Perlan Project, Emeryville, CA


Lunch Break (Cash and Carry in Exhibit Hall)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 19 January 2010

Recording files available
Session 4
Meteorological, climatological, and hydrological predictions and projections
Location: B305 (GWCC)
Host: 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University
  1:30 PM
4.1
Kalman filtered analogs to improve Numerical Weather Predictions
Thomas Nipen, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and L. Delle Monache, J. P. Hacker, Y. Liu, R. B. Stull, and T. Warner
  1:45 PM
4.2
Temperature forecast opportunities across the NWS Southern Region
Bernard N. Meisner, NOAA/NWS Southern Region Headquarters, Fort Worth, TX; and N. S. Flecha
  2:00 PM
4.3
Introduction on MOS Approaches for KMA Digital Forecast
JunTae Choi, Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and Y. Seo and M. S. Lee

  2:15 PM
4.4
Short-term wind power ramp forecasting using statistical and machine-learning techniques and off-site observations
Scott D. Otterson, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and E. P. Grimit and A. W. Wood

  2:30 PM
4.5
Improved short-term hurricane intensity forecasting using regression on core measurements
D. Andrew Murray, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart
  2:45 PM
4.6

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 19 January 2010


Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
Location: Exhibit Hall B1 (GWCC)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 19 January 2010

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Research on extreme weather and climate events and inter-relationships
Location: B216 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres; the First Environment and Health Symposium; the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 24th Conference on Hydrology; the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology; the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Committee on Climate Services )
Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC
  3:30 PM
J4.1
The relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S
Gerald Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. R. Easterling, and L. R. McDaniel
  3:45 PM
J4.2
A common Midwestern question: Where have all our 90°F days gone?
David Changnon, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and V. A. Gensini and J. Prell
  4:15 PM
J4.4
Heat waves and cold spells in a warming climate
Karsten Steinhaeuser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and A. R. Ganguly
  4:30 PM
J4.6
Extreme european weather regimes
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Portugal; and B. J. Hoskins and M. Blackburn
  4:45 PM
J4.7
Meteorological features of observed trends in U.S. heavy precipitation events
Kenneth E. Kunkel, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. R. Easterling, B. E. Gleason, D. A. R. Kristovich, R. A. Smith, and L. Ensor
  5:15 PM
J4.5
Climatological, meteorological, and societal implications for the large number of fatalities from central Florida Dry Season tornadoes during El Niño
Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and L. A. Jordan, A. L. Moses, S. M. Spratt, and D. F. Van Dyke III

Wednesday, 20 January 2010

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010

Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Advances in Modeling, From Local through Regional to Large Scale, and From Deterministic to Ensemble-Probabilistic Prediction Part I
Location: B215 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 14th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres; the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 24th Conference on Hydrology )
Chair: Ed Olenic, NOAA/NWS/CPC
  8:30 AM
J5.1
On the seamless prediction of weather and climate
Timothy N. Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
  8:45 AM
J5.2
  9:00 AM
J5.3
  9:15 AM
J5.4
North Pacific decadal variability and climate change in the IPCC AR4 models
Jason C. Furtado, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and E. Di Lorenzo
  9:30 AM
J5.5
Aquaplanet GCM simulations of tropical intraseasonal variability
Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. Hannah
  9:45 AM
J5.6
Factors affecting forecast skill of the MJO over the Maritime Continent
Augustin Vintzileos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC - SAIC, Camp Springs, MD

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010


Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010

Recording files available
Joint Session 6
Advances in Modeling, From Local through Regional to Large Scale, and From Deterministic to Ensemble-Probabilistic Prediction Part II
Location: B215 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 14th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres; the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 24th Conference on Hydrology )
Chair: Ed Olenic, NOAA/NWS/CPC
  10:30 AM
J6.1
  11:00 AM
J6.3
Evaluation of the new Australian climate model ACCESS
Ian G. Watterson, CAWCR, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; and L. Rikus, B. Hu, and T. Elliott
  11:15 AM
J6.4
Mesoscale circulations in the urban-coastal environment: a modeling analysis and assessment of sensitivity to high-fidelity representation of the urban canopy
Michael Carter, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and J. M. Shepherd, S. Burian, and I. Jeyachandran
  11:30 AM
J6.5
Ensemble downscaling of seasonal forecasts
R. W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA
  11:45 AM
J6.6
The misrepresentation of Tropical SSTs in climate models
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and S. I. Shin

11:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010


Exhibits Open

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010


Lunch Break (Cash and Carry in Exhibit Hall)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010

Recording files available
Session 5
Probability forecasting
Location: B305 (GWCC)
Host: 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL; Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS
  1:30 PM
5.1
  1:45 PM
5.2
  2:00 PM
5.3
  2:15 PM
5.4
Rank Histograms and Correlations
Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Wang, F. Kong, and S. Leyton

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)

Poster Session
20th Conference on Probability and Statistics Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)
Host: 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR
 
514
Probability distributions of apparent temperature from ensemble MOS
Matthew Peroutka, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Zylstra, T. Huntemann, and J. Wagner

Handout (499.8 kB)

 
515
Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
Maurice J. Schmeits, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; and A. B. A. Slangen

Handout (308.8 kB)

 
Poster 516 moved. New paper number J10.1A

 
517
Comparison of artificial intelligence and statistical techniques for probabilistic forecasting of sky condition
Timothy J. Hall, The Aerospace Corporation, Silver Spring, MD; and C. N. Mutchler, G. J. Bloy, R. N. Thessin, S. K. Gaffney, and J. J. Lareau

Handout (1.3 MB)

 
518
Bayesian Processor of Ensemble: A Gaussian-Gamma Model
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

 
519
MOGREPS ensemble-based Clear Air Turbulence products
Lisa J. Murray, UK Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and P. Gill, P. Buchanan, and K. Mylne

Handout (340.6 kB)

 
520
NAEFS Probabilistic Forecast and Future Expansion
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Cui and Z. Toth

 
521
Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Post-processing of Data from Numerical Weather Prediction Systems
Hongfei Li, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish

 
522
The role of model bias in the multi-model ensemble approach
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Li

 
523
Linkage between pseudo-precipitation and precipitation distribution
Huiling Yuan, CIRES and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and P. Schultz, Z. Toth, and J. C. Schaake

 
524
NOAA Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook Performance Evaluation
Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Hollingshead, S. Handel, M. Ou, J. Gottschalck, M. J. Menne, and C. N. Williams Jr.

 
525
Verification of convective initiation patterns and coverage
Paul J. Croft, Kean University, Union, NJ; and T. Skic and A. M. Cope

 
526
Performance of a Probabilistic Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Prediction Algorithm
Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. L. Cintineo and T. M. Smith

Handout (865.9 kB)

 
527
Evaluation of Experimental Forecasts from the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment Using Both Traditional and Spatial Methods
Tara Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and B. Brown, M. Coniglio, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and L. Nance

Handout (522.6 kB)

 
528
Nonlinear Optical Flow for Verification
Caren Marzban, APL, Seattle, WA; and S. Sandgathe

Handout (1.2 MB)

 
Poster 529 moved. New paper number 5.4

 
530
Verification of European Storm Forecast Experiment forecasts
Alex Kowaleski, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and H. Brooks

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010

Recording files available
Joint Session 11
Probabilistic Forecasting for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)
Location: B204 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 8th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the Presidential Forum )
Cochairs: John K. Williams, NCAR; John J. Murray, NASA Langley Research Center; Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
  4:15 PM
J11.2
Advances in the Collaborative Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA)
James O. Pinto, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Williams, M. Steiner, D. Albo, S. Dettling, W. Dupree, D. Morse, H. Iskenderian, T. Xiaofeng, M. Wolfson, C. Reiche, S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, and C. Alexander
  4:30 PM
J11.3
Probabilistic forecasting of ceiling and visibility at CONUS terminals: Development progress
Paul H. Herzegh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Lambi, J. Cowie, G. Wiener, R. Bateman, and J. Black
  4:45 PM
J11.4
Using a genetic algorithm to estimate source term parameters of volcanic ash clouds
Kerrie J. Schmehl, Penn State University, State College, PA; and D. Truesdell and S. E. Haupt
  5:00 PM
J11.5
Techniques for providing probabilistic forecasts of turbulence for NextGen
Matthew J. Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and J. K. Williams
  5:15 PM
J11.6
Regionalized probabilistic turbulence forecasting using machine learning with in-situ data
Jennifer Abernethy, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and J. K. Williams
  5:30 PM
J11.7
A probabilistic global turbulence nowcast and forecast system
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Kessinger, R. D. Sharman, W. F. Feltz, and A. Wimmers

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010


Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
Location: Exhibit Hall B1 (GWCC)

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 20 January 2010


AMS Annual Awards Banquet
Location: Thomas Murphy Ballroom 1-4 (GWCC)

Thursday, 21 January 2010

7:30 AM-8:30 AM: Thursday, 21 January 2010


Washington Symposium Breakfast
Location: B208 (GWCC)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 21 January 2010

Recording files available
Session 6
Forecast Verification
Location: B305 (GWCC)
Host: 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Robert E. Livezey, NWS Retired, Self-Employed Consultant; Caren Marzban, University of Washington
  8:30 AM
6.1
Spatial forecast verification
E. Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO

  9:00 AM
6.3
Bayesian Verification of Warnings
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

  9:15 AM
6.4
Model Verification Using Gaussian Mixture Models
Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 21 January 2010


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)

9:45 AM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 21 January 2010


Exhibits Open

11:00 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 21 January 2010

Recording files available
Joint Session 10
Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts
Location: B305 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the 8th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science )
Cochairs: Bjarne Hansen, EC; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL
  11:45 AM
J10.3
Verification of aviation turbulence detection, nowcast, and forecast products
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Pocernich, R. D. Sharman, and J. Abernethy
  12:00 PM
J10.4
Evaluation of a probabilistic convective nowcast for CoSPA
D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Williams, S. Dettling, H. Cai, and M. Steiner

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 21 January 2010

Recording files available
Joint Session 8
New challenges for applied meteorology and climatology
Location: B211 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology; the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres; the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the First Environment and Health Symposium; the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research )
Chair: Melissa Griffin, Florida Climate Center/Florida State Univ.
  1:30 PM
J8.1
Developing useful science: methods for engaging stakeholders and evaluating integrated climate tools
Gigi Owen, CLIMAS/University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. Averyt, K. Werner, and D. Ferguson
  1:45 PM
J8.2
10 years of the U.S. Drought Monitor: a look back and a look forward
Mark D. Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, NE; and B. Fuchs, S. Scott, and J. Nothwehr
  2:00 PM
J8.3
User-driven downscaling: advances in data apportioning and analysis to augment adaptation planning
Edwin P. Maurer, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA; and L. D. Brekke, T. Pruitt, K. D. White, E. Ochs, P. Duffy, and E. H. Girvetz
  2:15 PM
J8.4
  2:45 PM
J8.6
Martian dust storm hazards: improving characterization and forecasting
Nicholas Heavens, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and M. I. Richardson, I. J. McEwan, and M. W. Busch

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 21 January 2010


Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 21 January 2010

Recording files available
Session 7
Ensemble prediction including post processing
Location: B305 (GWCC)
Host: 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia; David R. Bright, BPA
  3:30 PM
7.1
Some Characteristics of GEFS Stochastic Perturbations
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and W. Yang
  3:45 PM
7.2
Extracting Predictive Information from an Ensemble
Nah Youn Lee, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz

  4:00 PM
7.3
Investigation of the Linear Variance Calibration using an idealized stochastic ensemble
Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, S. E. Haupt, and A. Deng
  4:15 PM
7.4
Quantile regression as a means of calibrating and verifying a mesoscale NWP ensemble
Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker, Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Wu, J. C. Knievel, T. T. Warner, S. P. Swerdlin, J. C. Pace, and S. F. Halvorson
  4:30 PM
7.5
Ensemble MOS forecasts from multiple models
John Wagner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn
  4:45 PM
7.6
Pseudo-precipitation: a continuous variable for statistical post-processing
Paul Schultz, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, Z. Toth, M. Charles, and R. Krzysztofowicz

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 21 January 2010


AMS 90th Annual Meeting Adjourns