A proposed framework for estimating and reducing hourly-updated forecast uncertainty products for aviation applications in NextGen

With the advent of the NextGen aviation forecast system, a requirement has emerged to design a consistent framework for estimating hourly-updated probabilistic, or uncertainty forecast information for aviation weather element variables, including turbulence, icing, ceiling, visibility, and convective weather parameters.

The proposed framework combines components developed by different laboratories, including use of multiple numerical prediction models (e.g., Rapid Refresh, HRRR, NAM, NAM-nests, GFS, SREF, etc.), time-lagged ensemble members, radar-initialized storm-scale model forecasts, and multiple algorithms for some variables, all combined into a unified post-processing code. This high-frequency post-processing framework will also include blending of nowcast and forecast grids, adaptive statistical adjustment (including bias correction) using recent observations, and optimized weighting of ensemble forecast members. Details of this framework design will evolve through contributions from multiple laboratories.