11
Probabilistic Forecasting for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)

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Wednesday, 20 January 2010: 4:00 PM-5:45 PM
B204 (GWCC)
Hosts: (Joint between the 8th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the Presidential Forum )
Cochairs:  John K. Williams, Ral, NCAR, Boulder, CO; John J. Murray, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA and Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

Papers:
  4:00 PM
J11.1
A proposed framework for estimating and reducing hourly-updated forecast uncertainty products for aviation applications in NextGen
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and G. DiMego
Recorded presentation

  4:15 PM
J11.2
Advances in the Collaborative Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA)
James O. Pinto, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Williams, M. Steiner, D. Albo, S. Dettling, W. Dupree, D. Morse, H. Iskenderian, T. Xiaofeng, M. Wolfson, C. Reiche, S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, and C. Alexander
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.9 MB)

  4:30 PM
J11.3
Probabilistic forecasting of ceiling and visibility at CONUS terminals: Development progress
Paul H. Herzegh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Lambi, J. Cowie, G. Wiener, R. Bateman, and J. Black
Recorded presentation

  4:45 PM
J11.4
Using a genetic algorithm to estimate source term parameters of volcanic ash clouds
Kerrie J. Schmehl, Penn State University, State College, PA; and D. Truesdell and S. E. Haupt
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (330.3 kB)

  5:00 PM
J11.5
Techniques for providing probabilistic forecasts of turbulence for NextGen
Matthew J. Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and J. K. Williams
Recorded presentation

  5:15 PM
J11.6
Regionalized probabilistic turbulence forecasting using machine learning with in-situ data
Jennifer Abernethy, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and J. K. Williams
Recorded presentation

  5:30 PM
J11.7
A probabilistic global turbulence nowcast and forecast system
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Kessinger, R. D. Sharman, W. F. Feltz, and A. Wimmers
Recorded presentation

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