Inclusion of New Variables in Bias Correction and Downscaling for NAEFS

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Monday, 18 January 2010
Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and Z. Toth

NAEFS (Northern American Ensemble Forecasting System) has been maintained and continuously enhanced since its first operational implementation in 2005 at NCEP and CMC. A statistical down-scaling method was applied to the NAEFS in December 2007 to generate National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD-5km) resolution products for CONUS from 1.0 degree ensemble forecasts. There are four variables for this application in the current NAEFS operation: 2-meter temperature, surface pressure, 10-meter u and v. The downscaled products include probabilistic forecasts (10%, 50%, and 90%), ensemble mean, spread and mode, twice per day out to 16 days. In this study, 6 new important and high demand surface variables, including downscaled wind speed (Ws), wind direction (Wd), maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), 2-meter dew point temperature (Dpt2m), and 2-meter relative humidity (RH2m) will be introduced and evaluated separately.