Some Characteristics of GEFS Stochastic Perturbations
In order to develop an algorithm to automatically and objectively determine the size of the Stochastic Perturbations, their spatial structure, temporal evolution and statistical characteristics are investigated. Also studied are the relations of these SPs with the ensemble spread, errors of the ensemble mean and their rates of temporal variations. Based on the major characteristics of SP, a simple adaptive algorithm is designed to rescale their sizes with three dimensional variations and automatic seasonal adjustment.
This article will present the major results of the investigations and the preliminary tests of the adaptive algorithm.