NAEFS Probabilistic Forecast and Future Expansion

NAEFS (Northern American Ensemble Forecasting System) has been implemented in operation since 2005 which applied statistical post process for both NCEP/GEFS and CMC/GEFS, producing a set of probabilistic forecasts from bias corrected, joined global ensembles. Downscaled probabilistic products covered CONUS has been implemented in 2007. FNMOC (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center) global ensemble is in planning to join NAEFS in a year time frame when considering the improvement and value. This is also a frame work for future NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) project. This study will evaluate the performance of FNMOC global ensemble system for past year by using standard verification tools applied at NCEP comparing to current NCEP and CMC's ensemble system. The raw multi-model ensembles which include FNMOC's ensemble will be demonstrated, too. Finally, the joined performance by using all post processes for three ensembles will be evaluated by comparing current NAEFS.