The role of model bias in the multi-model ensemble approach

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Wednesday, 20 January 2010
Exhibit Hall B2 (GWCC)
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Li

The multi-model approach is widely used and recognized as an effective way

in improving an ensemble prediction system. However, little is known why multi-model

approach works the way as it does. In this study, the impact of model bias on

ensemble mean, spread and probabilistic forecasts was investigated based on

a multi-model mesoscale ensemble prediction system.