Space weather prediction via complexity measures in the solar-terrestrial record

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Monday, 18 January 2010
James A. Wanliss, Presbyterian College, Clinton, SC; and M. Watke, T. Bitner, J. Johnson, A. Knaak, and P. Dobias

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Large-scale fluctuations of the H component magnetic field at Earth's equator during the period from 1981 to 2002 were examined using multifractal tools. We computed, analyzed, and modeled a measure representation of the Dst data. This representation can be viewed as a probability measure that characterizes the Dst series. The measure representation in fact gives the probabilities of specific strings of events in the complete Dst time series. The raw time series clearly shows intermittency and non-Gaussianity, which are reflective of large magnetic storms. The relevance of the multifractal analysis is that it suggests physical processes that may lead to this kind of data, and provides intriguing possibility for space weather forecasting.