Predicting lightning potential on different time scales at the White Sands Missile Range

Forecasters at the Army Test and Evaluation Command's (ATEC) White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) are responsible for issuing weather forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather in support of range tests and routine range activities. Lightning poses a serious hazard for the workers and equipment. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is developing a lightning prediction system for short (e.g. < 30 minutes) and longer (up to several hours) lead times. To predict lightning on very short time scales, the NCAR Auto-Nowcaster (ANC) system is used, one of the key forecast tools in the ATEC Four-Dimensional Weather System (4DWX) at WSMR. The ANC is a data fusion system that utilizes NEXRAD radars, cloud-to-ground and total lightning data, numerical weather prediction, geostationary satellite imagery, as well as surface and upper air observations. For prediction of lightning potential on longer time scales, the skill of a combination of ATEC Real-time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (RTFDDA) numerical model forecast and climatological parameters is evaluated. From the model forecast, microphysical and dynamical cloud parameters are utilized to compute areas of lightning potential threat. Radar and lightning climatologies indicate areas prone to storms and lightning as a function of day time, month, or season, and are used to tune the model-based lightning potential forecasts. Results will be presented to showcase this new approach.