User-specific evaluation technologies for the NextGen weather Single Authoritative Source

Adverse weather has a profound impact on the safety, efficiency, and capacity of the National Air Space System (NAS). Therefore, improved decision making when weather impacts aviation operations is a key NextGen objective. The NextGen 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source (SAS) will provide a single de-conflicted authoritative definition of the current weather state and prediction of the future weather, as well as the user-requested high resolution, high temporal weather characteristics of importance to Air Navigation Service Providers and airspace users (ATM-Weather Integration Plan, 2009).

In order to better understand the application of weather forecasts and weather characteristics of importance into the Air Traffic Management (ATM) process using the SAS, forecast products and their characteristics need to be objectively evaluated at key weather impact points; such as when the severity or likelihood of occurrence of convective weather reduces the capacity of a route or when low ceiling and visibility conditions reach thresholds that impact airport capacity.

To accomplish this goal, NextGen weather integration concepts, such as mincut concepts for determining airspace capacity, sector-based assessment approaches at strategic planning decision points, and weather impact across the NAS are being integrated into mechanics for measuring the quality and accuracy of weather forecasts (and the associated weather characteristics) in an operational context. This user-specific forecast quality information will be provided to the SAS and to automated ATM decision support tools through the Network-Enabled Verification Service (NEVS). The NEVS is a sophisticated data integrator, data management system, and quality assessment generator utilizing the NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) technologies for delivery of user-specific quality assessment information in real time to the SAS.

An overview of the user-specific quality assessment concepts and NEVS capabilities as envisioned for NextGen Initial Operating Capability (IOC) and Mid-term Operating Capability (MOC) will be presented.