Evaluating compoents of the forecast process for populating and maintaining the NextGen Weather Information Database

ESRL's Global Systems Division is in the process of defining, testing, and demonstrating a forecast process for populating and maintaining components of the NextGen Weather Information Database (WIDB). For this four-year project, the general approach is to initially carry out exploratory evaluations of some current capabilities, starting in 2009, and finishing with tests of tools and techniques in a pre-IOC (Initial Operating Capability) demonstration in 2012.

Our initial focus is to evaluate two programs currently under development; the Interactive Calibration in Four Dimensions (IC4D) and the AutoNowcaster (ANC). The IC4D is being developed to generate icing and turbulence forecast fields as well as other aviation impact variables. The ANC generates sort-term forecasts for convective initiation, as well as other convective weather fields. Forecasters can use both programs interactively to generate these forecast fields. This interactive forecast process will be examined, as well as the usability and utility of the various system components and the generated forecast fields.

This presentation will describe our results to date and plans for future evaluations and demonstrations.