Can CoSPA improve the predictability of C&V events?

Accurately predicting the onset and conclusion of hazardous ceiling and visibility (C&V) events continues to be the most challenging aspect of the phenomena. In order to make progress on this important problem, concepts and experiments to leverage the strengths of diverse meteorological data and forecast techniques must be investigated.

One potential source of data is CoSPA, which employs current data (i.e. radar) and forecast techniques (i.e. extrapolation and a numerical weather prediction model) to provide forecasts of the state of storm systems in the future. To assess whether they can be used in a probabilistic NCVF system, time, space and impact severity characteristics of CoSPA storm forecasts need to be evaluated.

This paper will present early results of our assessment of CoSPA's capability to guide NCVF prediction of impacted C&V events in the 1-3 hour time-frame. Experiments focus on synoptic-scale weather systems and CoSPA's treatment of weather related to the initiation and termination of impacted C&V conditions at selected locations in its domain in warm and cool regimes.