Upcoming improvements in NOAA modeling toward meeting NextGen aviation requirements

In this paper, we will summarize key aspects in planned improvements to NOAA modeling capabilities serving aviation, from regional hourly-updated models to global models.

Improvements in aviation modeling in the next 2 years:

- Rapid Refresh (RR) – covering North America with hourly update cycle

- High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) – covering CONUS and Alaska with hourly-updated storm-resolving model initialized by latest 3-d radar reflectivity and radial wind data

- North American Mesoscale (NAM) model with 6-h update cycle

- Storm-scale nests inside NAM including CONUS and Alaska

- Global Forecast System (GFS) with 6-h update cycle.

Additions over the 2012-2020 period

- ensemble-based Rapid Refresh by 2013 (6 members)

- hourly updated global model forecast information after NextGen MOC (Midterm Operating Capability)

- ensemble-based HRRR forecasts after 2015

- improved data assimilation using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and/or 4-d variational (4dVAR) techniques

- improved satellite and radar assimilation

- addition of inline chemistry to improve visibility, cloud, and precipitation forecasts for aviation (e.g., RR-Chem, HRRR-chem)

- ensemble-based post-processing for aviation uncertainty/probability forecasts (discussed in companion paper)