NOGAPS adaptive observing and data denial experiments during T-PARC/TCS-08

In order to improve the prediction of TC intensity, structure, and track, THe Observing-system Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) /Office of Naval Research (ONR) Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 (TCS-08) field campaign was conducted from August through early October 2008. The international campaign, with 9 participating nations, aimed to observe TCs and their environment throughout their life-cycle. In support of the targeted observing objective of the field program, the Naval Research Laboratory produced large-scale adaptive observing guidance for tropical cyclones using singular vectors from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). Data denial experiments are run with and without targeted dropwindsondes and satellite-based atmospheric motion vectors to determine the impact of these data sets on TC forecasts using NOGAPS and the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR). The impact of these data sets on TC forecast errors and forecast differences will be reported on, and interpreted in conjunction with the singular vector guidance.