7.3
Using meterological verification techniques to assess performance of space weather models

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Tuesday, 25 January 2011: 4:00 PM
Using meterological verification techniques to assess performance of space weather models
4C-3 (Washington State Convention Center)
Michael Wiltberger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. C. Solomon and W. Wang

The meteorological community has a long history of developing techniques for assessing the performance of their numerical models against a variety of different data sets. These techniques range in complexity from methods for dichotomous forecast to simple time series analysis and methods for spatial distributed datasets. In this presentation we will apply techniques from all of these methods to assess the performance of Coupled Magnetosphere Ionosphere Theremosphere model, one of the physics-based numerical models used to simulate space weather in geospace, under a variety conditions ranging from intervals of weak activity to major geomagnetic storms. In particular, we concentrate on dichotomous forecast assessment for geosynchronous satellites crossing from within the magnetosphere out into the magnetosheath. Our time series analysis will focus on using tools beyond simple RMS error calculation for comparison of ground and space based magnetometer observations. In the final section we will apply the spatial analysis techniques developed in the meteorological community for analyzing precipitation forecast to comparing observations of the field aligned current structure as well as the distribution and intensity of auroral particle fluxes.