J1.2 Stratospheric temperature trends: History of our evolving understanding

Monday, 24 January 2011: 11:30 AM
3B (Washington State Convention Center)
Dian J. Seidel, NOAA, College Park, MD; and N. P. Gillett, J. Lanzante, K. P. Shine, and P. Thorne

Changes in greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone concentrations are known to force long-term trends in stratospheric temperature. Therefore, national and international assessments of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion over the past several decades have included discussion of observed and projected stratospheric temperature trends. Similarly, tropospheric temperature trends have figured prominently in the climate change literature; they have been the subject of considerable controversy related to apparent discrepancies among observations and between observations and model simulations. We present an historical review of our evolving understanding of stratospheric temperature trends, including both observational and modeling perspectives, from the 1970's to present. Comparisons and contrasts will be drawn between the stratospheric and tropospheric temperature trend literature. Recent observational and modeling developments will be highlighted.
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