Joint center for environmental analysis, prediction, and projection (JCEAPP): a coordinated approach to U.S. modeling efforts

The U.S. modeling, prediction, and projection efforts are currently spread across several institutions and are fed by research advances from government scientists as well as the external research community. These models provide information on the future state of weather, short-term and long-term climate, ecosystems, the ocean, and thus significantly contribute to the decision making process for individuals through policy makers, and for sectors ranging from water resources to financial markets. However, these efforts are uncoordinated, and the transfer of new research into state-of-the-art models is slow. In addition, model predictions and projections, and in particular the results of scenario experiments, are not reaching decision makers who can make the most use of the information.

In addition to Earth System Models (ESM) used for prediction and projections of the weather and climate states, impact modeling efforts need to be integrated with ESMs. This will ensure that US modeling capabilities can directly support policy-making, planning, and decision support for mitigation, adaptation, for energy, the environment, socio-economic systems public safety, and national security in the face of a variable and changing climate.

To respond to the increasing needs of the nation and the international community, the U.S. needs an Integrated Earth System Modeling (IESM) approach that builds upon the nation's substantial research and modeling infrastructure. This IESM approach will coordinate research and modeling efforts that support predictions from weather regime changes to intraseasonal-to-interannual (ISI) to decadal and multi-decadal climate and models that support social and economic responses to weather and climate.

This paper describes a center (Joint Center for Environmental Analysis, Prediction, and Projection - JCEAPP) within which U.S. activities in model research and development would be coordinated. This center would redefine the current architecture for model research and development and could be implemented through an iterative process that includes virtual membership.