Since the last conference there have been a number of improvements to the FIM (these will be detailed in an accompanying paper), and for the conference in January we will show more recent forecast examples from the FIM for some of the challenging storms of last winter. Where possible we will also examine cases for the early part of the upcoming winter, since additional changes have been made since last winter. We will demonstrate that the FIM forecasts, initialized from the identical initial conditions as the operational GFS, can be similar to the GFS or ECMWF, but by 120 hours into the forecasts do not systematically resemble a particular model. In some instances the FIM forecast will be different from either model, but well within the scope of reasonable solutions. Both characteristics of the FIM appear to make it a potential useful addition to a global forecast ensemble. In addition, there are several variants of the FIM that are being tested at GSD, and we will compare the forecasts from these runs as well at the conference.
Supplementary URL: http://ruc.noaa.gov/pubs.cgi#3