A High Resolution Modeling Approach to Impoved Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecasts

Accurate prediction of hazardous weather associated with landfalling tropical cyclones continues to be one of the greatest challenges for tropical meteorologists. One area that continues to trouble hurricane forecasters is predicting the tropical cyclone wind field after landfall. While significant past studies have examined the evolution of the tropical cyclone wind field after landfall, the results from most of these studies are not routinely used in NWS forecasting operations. The current methodology used by NWS local offices involves obtaining NHC forecasts and then modifying the forecasts to account for local effects. However, the process is quite subjective and adjustments are often made without strong scientific backing.

In this study, we aim to improve the currently used methodology for operational forecasts of wind speed and wind gust. We begin by building a climatology of past landfalling tropical cyclones affecting a given region of the United States. Observed winds are compared to forecasts issued by local forecast offices. From here, a statistical-dynamical model of winds and wind-gusts will be developed by combining the observed climatology of cases with high-resolution numerical simulations of selected cases.