Strategic lightning threat prediction--An assessment of multiple techniques

Lightning poses a serious threat for human safety and equipment that are exposed to convective weather impacts. Developing procedures that enable timely warning of severe convective storms and associated lightning is a key focus of our research and development work. We are currently assessing multiple ways of predicting a lightning threat based on utilizing numerical weather prediction model data. These model-based lightning forecasts are evaluated for different climate regimes in the United States. In particular, we are studying the the performance of lightning threat forecasts at the Army Test and Evaluation Command White Sands Missile Range. Other potential applications include airports and space launch facilities.