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Separating the effects of GHGs and ODSs in past and future ozone changes

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Monday, 24 January 2011
Separating the effects of GHGs and ODSs in past and future ozone changes
Washington State Convention Center
Robert W. Portmann, NOAA, Boulder, CO

The long term changes in ozone due to GHGs and chlorinated and brominated substances are isolated using a two-dimensional (2D) model. This is done using multiple simulations that alter one compound at a time. The magnitudes of the GHG and halogen effects on ozone since pre-industrial time and into the future will be emphasized. Due to interactions between the GHGs and halogens the individual contributions cannot be unambiguously separated. The largest nonlinear interactions between terms will be estimated with the model. The degree to which terms can be separated because of these nonlinear terms will be discussed.