S22 Verification of the Experimental Hurricane Tracking and Intensity Prediction Model (EHTIPM) with Observations from the 2010 Hurricane Alex

Sunday, 23 January 2011
Cristimer Gonzalez, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and N. D. Ramirez

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most intense and feared storms of the world. For a long time, researchers had been trying to understand TC's structure and its evolution considering the aspects that determine the trajectory and intensification pattern. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses several models to forecast the track and intensity of the TCs, and represents their evolution and its effect in the environment. The purpose of this study was to analyze the Experimental Hurricane Tracking and Intensity Prediction Model (EHTIPM) in order to propose some improvements to better forecasting. All the information was acquire, formatted and processed for hurricane Alex (first hurricane of the 2010 Hurricane Season). Initially we were validating the EHTIPM with archived data from NCEP in order to produced tracks and intensity forecast that were compared with the actual path of the storm. Preliminary results have shown that the EHTIPM could be a confidence and powerful tool forecasting the track and intensity for TC in short lead times.
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