S83 Meeting Client Needs of Medium and Long Range Temperature Forecasting

Sunday, 23 January 2011
Sullivan Brown, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and J. Sherman and J. C. Shafer

This poster will display results from applied research projects conducted working for a financial services client while supervised by a faculty member. The client trades natural gas futures, and has a vested interest toward improving medium- and long- range temperature forecasting over key U.S. markets. Research focused on analyzing past extreme temperature states, and identifying key subseasonal and synoptic patterns leading up to anomalously hot or cold temperatures. In addition, seasonal indicators such as ENSO, the PDO, and AMO were also examined to see if these states may predispose hot or cold episodes.

Other unique analysis is shown, such as the relationship of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and associated tropical OLR patterns to anomalous events. Connections of sudden stratospheric warming episodes to major hemispheric pattern changes during winter, and their effects on wintertime temperatures are also examined.

Results show that there is a lot of variance in the seasonal indicators and the occurrence of anomalous hot or cold episodes on monthly time scales. However, composite and case study analysis reveals that common synoptic precursor patterns, such as OLR, are identified prior to the occurrence of anomalous heat or cold over the east coast consuming region. These studies collectively show that there are distinct connections between midlatitude synoptic weather patterns over North America and seasonal and subseasonal processes.

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