Model verification and analysis of intense mesoscale convective vortices at the surface: simulation of Tropical Storm Erin 2007
Before this can be done, an accurate, high-resolution meteorological data set must be obtained for each case to be studied. With a lack of direct observations from most MCV cases, such a data set must be obtained via numerical simulation. The focus of this work is to verify the ability of a numerical model to accurately represent the evolution of an intense MCV event, specifically the overland reintensification of Tropical Storm Erin (2007). Version 3.2 of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) is used to conduct a high-resolution simulation of Erin. The model exhibits a slight slow and weak bias with respect to track and intensity. Simulated reflectivity structures modestly resemble radar-based observations. Simulated thermodynamic quantities closely resemble those synthesized from observations. Simulations of additional cases are needed, however, to verify the model's ability to accurately represent multiple MCV events and to begin to draw insight into how these features develop, intensify, and decay.