92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Monday, 23 January 2012
An Analog Approach to Forecasting Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls Using Hebert Boxes
Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )
Michael C. Kruk, ERT, Inc., Asheville, NC; and E. Gibney, C. J. Schreck III, and P. Hebert

Numerous computer models have been developed and refined to address the forecast track of a tropical cyclone, but they are hampered by interactions across numerous scales. Fortunately, tropical cyclones are largely steered by semi-permanent weather systems, and complimentary analog tools can help fine-tune the forecast track. One tool used to assess landfall probability for major hurricanes in South Florida has been the “Hebert Box”, which is a five by five degree box through which if a storm passed resulted in greater likelihood of a south Florida landfall. With the advent of a consolidated global tropical cyclone dataset, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, IBTrACS, such prognostic boxes were determined for the other tropical cyclone-prone basins. This presentation will outline the process through which these global Hebert Boxes were developed. Using the 20th century reanalysis data of sea-level pressures, the synoptic climatology for those storms passing through the boxes will also be shown. The presentation will conclude with a statistical discussion of the predictability of the boxes.

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