92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Thursday, 26 January 2012
Using Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication Tools for Early Warning and Prediction of Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricanes
Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )
Francis. Tuluri, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and S. R. Rematat, D. Lu, A. Maina, B. R. V. Dodla, and A. Yerrammilli

Advanced environmental modeling, technology, and communication tools can be integrated for a manifestation of the onset of tropical cyclone/hurricanes. In our earlier preliminary investigations, we proposed a scheme for early warning prediction of land falling tropical cyclone/hurricanes consisting of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW) Environmental Mesoscale Model and radio soundings and the scheme predicted about three days in advance of the onset of the Hurricane Katrina (2005). In the present study, we will extend the scheme to the case of Hurricane Alex (2010) and the results will be discussed in more general conditions. Hurricane Alex began to strengthen from an extratropical storm over the Atlantic on June 20, 2010. Later Hurricane Alex developed into a tropical storm on June 26, 2010 and strengthening to Category 2 on June 30, 2010 with sustained winds of 100 mph and pressure of 978 mb making landfall in Belize, Mexico over Gulf of Mexico, on 30th June 2010. Model simulations are used for prediction of the structure, intensity change and track of the hurricane Alex. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 hr periods, from June 21th to August 30th with and without data assimilation. We used atmospheric soundings over the Gulf coast stations during the period for prediction and communication and computed the vertical velocities using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained from soundings at the equilibrium level (EL) for the period June 21- 30, 2010. The results of the study suggested that the model is capable of simulating surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Alex. The model results are in good agreement with the observations. Alex produced severe weather conditions seen by the observed CAPE values, as signs of developing tropical hurricane earlier to its manifestation. The environmental modeling and technology tools facilitate an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for tropical cyclone/hurricane prediction and awareness.

Key words: Environmental modeling, Tropical cyclone/hurricane, prediction and communication

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