92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Thursday, 26 January 2012
Seasonal Forecast of the North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )
Gabriele Villarini, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi

The Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) are metrics routinely used to assess tropical storm activity. This study focuses on the development of a statistically-based seasonal forecasting system for North Atlantic PDI and ACE over the period 1982-2010. The statistical model uses only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to describe the variability exhibited by the observational record. These predictors reflect the importance of both local and non-local effects on the genesis and development of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. A set of retrospective predictions by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-CM2.1 experimental seasonal-to-interannual prediction system is used as covariates. The predictions are initialized over the period November 1981–March 2011, and each of them has a 10-member ensemble. Results will show that it is possible to make skillful predictions of these two metrics starting from October of the previous year. This means that it is possible to make skillful predictions of the seasonally integrated North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the coming season while the current one is still underway. Probabilistic predictions for the upcoming 2012 North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity will be presented.

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