Wednesday, 25 January 2012: 9:00 AM
The 2011 Aviation Weather Testbed Summer Experiment: Evaluation of New Concepts for Forecasting Convection Impacts in the National Airspace System
Room 335/336 (New Orleans Convention Center )
The Aviation Weather Testbed, located at the Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, MO conducted a real-time forecast experiment from July 11th - 22nd, 2011 that created experimental forecasts and evaluated new and emerging weather data sets for forecasting convection impacts in the National Airspace System. During the two week operational period, teams of AWC forecasters and external visitors generated two graphical forecasts each day, valid from 18Z-00Z over the Chicago-Atlanta-New York "Golden Triangle" area, using data sets generated by research partners. The first forecast depicted areas of convection impacts to high altitude jet routes, and the second areas of 30% and 60% exceedance probability of radar echo top and reflectivity. The data sets evaluated included a 12 member 4km WRF ensemble generated by the Air Force Weather Agency, Air Capacity Reduction Potential (NCAR), the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (EMC), the Nearcast convective initiation model (GOES-R/CIMSS), the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (GSD), the Localized Aviation MOS Product (NOAA MDL), and the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (MIT/LL). Additionally, the teams produced a Day 2-7 categorical forecast of convection impacts using the North American Ensemble Forecast System. The results of the daily data evaluations and experimental forecasts will be discussed.