Wednesday, 25 January 2012
Use of High-Resolution, Frequent Update Ensemble Forecasts Initialized with LAPS for Aviation-Impact Convective Forecasts
In the present study we will explore the use of the high temporal and spatial resolution convective ensemble forecasts for aviation purposes. The ensemble that is utilized for this work consists of 9 WRF-ARW model members. Various members employ different physics options. In addition, an initial condition perturbation approach is used for the ensemble initialization. At each initial time the initial condition perturbations are centered on current the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analysis. LAPS was developed at the Forecast Applications Branch (FAB) of the Global Systems Division (GSD) of NOAA/ESRL in mid 1980s. The main idea behind the LAPS design was to provide real-time high-resolution, high frequency analyses using all available data sources. The ensemble forecasts are produced in real-time over the domain used in the NOAA/AWC Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) Summer 2011 experiment. The domain of integration covers an area extending from Chicago eastward across the Northeast. Ensemble output is produced on a 2-hourly cycle, with 15-minute output out to 6 forecast hours.