92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Thursday, 26 January 2012: 11:30 AM
Fine-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations of Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific
Room 354 (New Orleans Convention Center )
Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; and T. R. Knutson, C. Kerr, S. T. Garner, and J. Katzfey

Simulations of the GFDL regional climate model ZETAC are performed over the South Pacific region and the performance of the modeling system evaluated, with particular reference to extreme events such as heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones. The model generates a good simulation of climatological summer rainfall over this region. The influence of climate variability on rainfall and tropical cyclones is evaluated, particularly on the geographical variation of tropical cyclone formation in this region, which strongly depends on the phase of ENSO. The modeling system is well able to simulate this geographical variation but there are biases in the numbers of cyclones generated compared with the typical formation rate in this region. Predictions of the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones in this region are summarized and discussed in the context of these new model simulations.

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