An exceptional drought developed across most all of Texas in the fall of 2011. This short term but very intense drought has had a very significant impact on the water storage levels of Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis, the two water storage reservoirs for the Lower Colorado River in Texas. Near record dry conditions over the winter, spring and summer months combined with record heat, higher than normal evaporation rates and high water demands have put a strain on water supplies in the two lakes. At the same time, inflows into the lakes have been among the lowest in recorded history. This exceptional drought has caused significant challenges to the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), the state agency responsible for managing this important water supply.

Drought conditions were anticipated to develop across the region in the winter of 2010-2011 due to the development of La Niña in the fall of 2010. However, no one anticipated the development of one of the worst droughts in Texas history. Tracking the magnitude and progress of the drought was important in trying to anticipate rainfall as well as agricultural, municipal and industrial water demands.

Several observational and forecasting tools offered by NOAA, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) were helpful in tracking the progress of the drought. However, because this drought has been of a magnitude rarely seen in Central Texas, many of the tools and forecasts offered were of limited help. With extremes in the weather expected to become more common in the coming years, it would be helpful for NOAA, NIDIS and CPC to develop additional tools and forecasts to better handle weather extremes similar to those posed by the exceptional drought of 2011.