Wednesday, 25 January 2012
Pentad Analysis of Wintertime PNA Development and Its Relationship to the NAO
Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )
The Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection is a major mode of Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate variability, with well-known impacts on North American temperature and precipitation. The teleconnection operates on intraseasonal timescales where climate prediction is currently the weakest. In order to assess whether the PNA teleconnection has extended predictability, comprehensive data analysis is conducted to elucidate PNA evolution, with an emphasis on patterns of PNA development and decay. These patterns are identified using extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) and linear regression analyses on pentad-resolution atmospheric circulation data from the new Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Additionally, dynamical links between the PNA and another important mode of wintertime variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are analyzed both in the presence and absence of notable tropical convection, e.g., the Madden-Julian Oscillation; the latter is known to be influential on both. The relationship is analyzed using EEOF and regression techniques.
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