92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Wednesday, 25 January 2012
Evaluation of NOAA's HRRR Model Forecast Hub-Height Winds
Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )
William Pendergrass, NOAA/OAR/ARL/ATDD, Oak Ridge, TN; and C. A. Vogel and R. J. Dobosy

In May, 2010 NOAA/ARL and Duke Energy Generation initiated an Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) to explore potential improvements in modeling of the structure of the planetary atmospheric boundary layer and subsequent impact on forecasting of turbine hub-height wind speed. One aspect of the program has been the evaluation of NOAA/GSD's HRRR model forecasted hub-height winds against wind observations from the joint NOAA/Duke Energy field-research laboratory established at Duke Energy's Ocotillo Wind Farm. It is important for the wind energy industry to establish forecasting accuracies using current state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric models. Using a 50% cumulative-probability based skill score, the HRRR model absolute error in hub-height wind speed forecast is approximately 1.25 m/s for the initial 12-hour forecast period.

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