In 2011 NCAR transferred an operational version of an advanced wind forecasting system to Xcel Energy. The operational system is based on a combination of custom numerical weather prediction models and sophisticated post processing routines that integrate real-time observations from wind farms to produce high accuracy, turbine-by-turbine point forecasts of hub-height winds and power generation. The NCAR wind forecasting system is an integrated system that provides both wind and power predictions intended to enhance the integration of wind resources into the operational power grid.

Based on our experience with the development and testing of this operational system, NCAR is working on a number of enhancements to the system that will provide further improvements to the wind and power forecasts through additional observations, model enhancements, and improved post processing and optimization.

This presentation will summarize our newest results, in areas of enhanced short term (1-2 hour) forecasts; improved power estimation techniques; and better handling of extreme events such as power ramps, high-speed cut outs, and turbine icing.