Thursday, 26 January 2012
The Estimation of Deep Layer Mean Steering Flow and Its Application to Typhoon Track Prediction
Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )
The most dominant component influencing on typhoon tracks is environmental steering, which can be estimated either as averaged winds of a selected pressure level or as vertically averaged winds. Deep layer mean, which is estimated by vertically averaged winds with height-dependent weights, is more correlated with tropical cyclones motion. In this study, weights are specified using log-normal function. The winds impact varying with the tropical cyclones intensity is implied by the application of different parameters in the function. The intensity dependent values of two parameters are determined by finding best fit between track and averaged winds. The data used in this study are Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model results. Steering flows specified by deep layer mean with intensity dependent weights are used to investigate the intensity impact on typhoon tracks and to propose the probable tracks. The results in detail will be presented in the meeting.
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