Sunday, 22 January 2012
A 2011 Comparison of Models, Soundings, and Radar At Valparaiso University
Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )
This paper focuses on a comparative analysis of models, soundings, and radar data in order to potentially quantify a better method of forecasting lake effect events over southern Lake Michigan. Selected cases throughout 2011 were analyzed in order to determine a correlation between numerical weather prediction and local nowcasting forecast tools. Forecast soundings from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as well as the local Valparaiso University Weather Research and Forecasting Model (VU-WRF) are compared with soundings from Green Bay, Wisconsin (GRB) and Valparaiso, Indiana. An analysis of radar imagery from the Valparaiso University dual-polarization radar as well as simulated radar reflectivity from the aforementioned models is also explored.