These demonstrations are currently under development by a set of volunteer working groups across the weather and climate prediction community. The goal of these five-year efforts is to provide a unifying theme for developing the common modeling environment, establishing a community model repository of common data sets & test cases, and assess forecast skill at the ranges of interest across multi-year hindcasts to assess predictability against potential DoE, DoC, and DoD user needs and to begin to develop guidelines for the future operational capability. Through this effort it is expected that critical path science and technology issues will be identified and addressed. The areas for the ESPC Demonstrations are: Episodic Weather Extremes: Predictability of Blocking Events and High Impact Weather at Lead Times of 1-6 Weeks; Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Threat: Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Likelihood, Mean Track, and Intensity from Weekly to Seasonal Timescales; Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Seasonal Ice Free Dates: Predictability from Weekly to Seasonal Timescales; Coastal Seas: Predictability of Circulation, Hypoxia, and Harmful Algal Blooms at Lead Times of 1-6 Weeks; Open Ocean: Predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from Monthly to Decadal Timescales.
The goal of ESPC is to create a high-resolution, extended range, coupled atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, and space national capability that will produce more accurate and longer range predictions at the weather-climate scale interface for use in policy, investment, and implementation decisions affecting the economy and protection of the US population. The ESPC effort will seek to coordinate and enhance sponsor-level multi-year investments from basic science to acquisition and operations. This long term investment will build the next generation prediction capability through leverage and integration of current and future advances in national environmental prediction and climate projection modeling systems.
Supplementary URL: www.espc.oar.noaa.gov