Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Program Chairs: Brian D'Agostino , Sempra Energy ; Stephen Bennett , EarthRisk Technologies ; Heidi Centola , CME Group ; Julie K. Lundquist , Univ. of Colorado ; Jason C. Shafer , Lyndon State College

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 5 January 2013

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 5 January 2013


Registration for Student Conference and Short Course
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

Sunday, 6 January 2013

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration for Short Course and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


WeatherFest
Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (Austin Convention Center)

Monday, 7 January 2013

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Registration Continues Through January 9
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

8:30 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Plenary Session
13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today's Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today; the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Eighth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the First Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Sixth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Special Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts; the 10th Conference on Space Weather; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; the Sixth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 11th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the Robert A. Duce Symposium; the Third Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Fourth Conference on Environment and Health )
  8:30 AM
Opening Remarks (by AMS President Dr. Louis Uccellini and Co-Chairs Troy Kimmel/Ken Carey will introduce Texas and Local Representatives)
  8:35 AM
Warm Welcome to Austin!

  8:45 AM
Introduction of Guest Speakers (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

  8:50 AM
"Predicting Weather and Climate: Scientific Progress and Future Opportunities" Dr. Alan Thorpe, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
  9:10 AM
"River/Rainfall Forecast Fusion Cells" Major General Michael Walsh, US Army Corps of Engineers
  9:30 AM
"Cloudy with the Chance of Insight" Dr. Tony Hey, Microsoft Research
  9:50 AM
"Where Citizens are Looking" Dr. Nigel Snoad, Google Crisis Response
  10:10 AM
Audience Question and Answer (moderated by Dr. William (Bill) Hooke)
  10:25 AM
Closing Remarks (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Ballroom D Foyer (Austin Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 1
Weather Applications and Research in the Energy Utility Sector
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Manda Adams, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; Kevin Stenson, MeteoGroup, Indianapolis, IN
  11:00 AM
1.1
Operational Implementation and Evaluation of a Solar and Wind Integrated Forecast Tool (SWIFT) in the Hawaiian Islands
Jeff Freedman, AWS TruePower LLC, Albany, NY; and D. Nakafuji, J. Zack, K. Pennock, and J. Manobianco
  11:15 AM
1.2
On-going Utilization and Evaluation of a Coupled Weather and Outage Prediction for Electric Distribution Operations
Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and A. P. Praino, J. Cipriani, B. Hertell, and R. Derech
  11:30 AM
1.3
Weather Based Damage Prediction of Overhead Distribution Lines in New England
David W. Wanik, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and M. E. Frediani, E. N. Anagnostou, D. Scerbo, W. J. Burley, B. L. Milardo, and C. Serna

  11:45 AM
1.4

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 2
Weather Applications and Research in the Energy Utility Sector Part 2
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Manda Adams, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; Kevin Stenson, MeteoGroup, Indianapolis, IN
  1:30 PM
2.1
  1:45 PM
2.2
Methodology for Developing a Heavy Wet Snow Scale for a Utility Company
Brandon Hertell, Consolidated Edison Company of New York, New York, NY; and R. Derech and J. Wilson
  2:00 PM
2.3

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Poster Session 1
Energy Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
 
Poster 424 has been moved. New paper number 8.3A

 
398
Performance characteristics of a Kalman filter-based bias correction technique
John M. Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and T. Nehrkorn, S. M. Leidner, M. Sze, and R. N. Hoffman

 
399
Data and Information Needs for Lease Issuance and Environmental Impacts Analysis
Angel McCoy, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Herndon, VA

 
400
Ocean Observations in Support of Offshore Renewable Energy Development
Angel McCoy, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Herndon, VA; and C. M. Hall and M. C. Boatman

 
401
Extrapolation of Wind Speed Data for Wind Energy Applications
Jennifer F. Newman, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. M. Klein
Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Poster PDF (474.4 kB)

 
Poster 403 has been moved. New paper number 8.2A.

 
404
Weather Central LP Wind Power Yield Forecast System
Justin Joseph Traiteur, Weather Central, LP, Madison, WI; and A. Rice, B. A. Wilt, S. J. Reinke, and R. Runnheim

 
405
Climate-Induced Changes in Peak Energy Demands in California
Jorge Gonzalez, City College of New York, New York, NY; and Y. Molina, P. Sequera, and R. Bornstein

 
406
Towards an Enlightened Wind Power Industry: Utilizing Popular Media
Jeffrey M. Freedman, AWS Truewind LLC, Albany, NY; and E. Klicka, J. K. Lundquist, M. Marquis, and K. E. Moore

Poster PDF (789.8 kB)

 
407
Verification of Hub-Height Wind Forecasts from the NCAR-Xcel Ensemble-RTFDDA System
Gregory Roux, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, L. Delle Monache, T. M. Hopson, W. Y. Y. Cheng, and Y. Liu

 
408
Assessing the Economic Value of Wind Derivatives for Wind Project Finance
Richard Oduntan, Nephila Capital Ltd, Hamilton, Bermuda; and M. Coleman and B. Schauble

 
409
Advanced Data Assimilation for Short-term Renewable Power Prediction: a Complex Terrain Case
Meng Zhang, IBM Research, Beijing, China; and H. Du, X. Rui, X. Bai, H. Wang, W. Yin, and J. Dong

 
410
Improving the Wind Power Forecast Quality by Combining Numerical Weather Models and Applying Scaling Techniques
Yvonne Hinnsen, Meteo Consult B.V., Wageningen, Netherlands; and D. Malda and R. Mureau

 
413
The Impact of Various Forecasting System Components on Short-Term Wind Forecasts
Isidora Jankov, Precision Wind, Boulder, CO; and D. Zupanski, S. Gregory, B. Beechler, M. Rothstein, B. Cote, and N. Vickers

 
414
The Gaussian Predictability of Wind Speeds
Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

 
415
Forecasting the Marine Layer Front through Physical Inputs and Machine Learning Techniques
Lukas Nonnenmacher, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and R. Schwartz, V. Kostylev, and C. F. M. Coimbra

Poster PDF (3.2 MB)

 
416
The Relationships Between Synoptic and Meso-Scale Weather Features and Wind Turbine Icing Events
Heath W. Corder, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and A. S. Adams

 
421
Wind Ramp Events at Turbine Height – Spatial Consistency and Causes at two Iowa Wind Farms
Renee Walton, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and E. S. Takle
Manuscript (591.9 kB)

Poster PDF (472.3 kB)

 
425

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Joint Session 1
Challenges and Opportunities in Energy Education and the New Energy Economy
Location: Room 13AB (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Symposium on Education; and the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Cochairs: Melissa A. Burt, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; Brian D'Agostino, San Diego Gas and Electric, ,
  4:00 PM
J1.1
Fueling Geoscience Literacy to Better Prepare for the New Energy Economy
Robert Weinbeck, American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC; and J. A. Brey, I. W. Geer, J. M. Moran, E. Mills, and K. Nugnes

  4:30 PM
J1.2
Climate Normals and Engagement with Energy Industry
Jenny Dissen, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC/CICS, Asheville, NC; and A. Arguez, T. G. Houston, and R. S. Voss

  5:00 PM
J1.3
Promoting energy literacy through social engagement tools
Eugene Cordero, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 10
Medium-range, Sub-seasonal and Seasonal-scale Forecast Techniques and Modeling for Energy Demand Part I
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation )
Cochairs: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, Inc (EarthSat Wx), Gaithersburg, MD; Stephen Bennett, EarthRisk Technologies, San Diego, CA; Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR, Boulder, CO
  4:30 PM
TJ10.3
  4:45 PM
TJ10.4
A seamless system for medium range, subseasonal and seasonal probabalistic forecasts of energy demand
Judith A. Curry, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. Belanger, M. Jelinek, V. Toma, and P. Webster

  5:00 PM
TJ10.5
Medium-Range Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting for Texas
Kristofer Y. Shrestha, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry, J. Belanger, J. Mittelman, J. Freedman, J. Zack, and P. Beaucage

  5:15 PM
TJ10.6
Subseasonal predictability of regional wind power generation
Jake Mittelman, Georgia Institute of Techonology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry, K. Shrestha, and J. Belanger

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Reception and Exhibits Opening
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

6:30 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Town Hall Meeting: “Keeping the Lights On: Is the Current State of Weather Communications and Forecasts Powerful Enough?”
Location: Room 14 (Austin Convention Center)
  6:30 PM
Keeping the Lights On

Tuesday, 8 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 3
Applications for Energy Decision Support
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Jenny Dissen, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC/CICS, Asheville, NC; Mark S. Russo, Chesapeake Energy Corp., Chicago, IL
  8:30 AM
3.1
Hurricane risk to offshore wind farms
Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Cocke

  9:00 AM
3.3
RealQuotes: An Novel Platform for Energy Analytics
Edward Byrns Jr., RenRe Energy Advisors, Ltd, The Woodlands, TX
  9:15 AM
3.4
The Energy Weather Data Universe
Lawrence Heitkemper, MDA Information Systems, Inc (EarthSat Wx), Gaithersburg, MD; and T. Hartman and D. D. B. Kirk-Davidoff

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

9:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 4
Weather's Link to Markets
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Jenny Dissen, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC/CICS, Asheville, NC; Mark S. Russo, Chesapeake Energy Corp., Chicago, IL
  9:30 AM
4.1
The Great Drought of 2012: Impacts on Agriculture & Energy
Josh Darr, Chesapeake Energy, Chicago, IL; and J. Davis and M. S. Russo

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

11:00 AM-11:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 5
Weather's Link to Markets Part 2
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Shane Motley, Xcel Energy , Denver, CO
  11:00 AM
5.1
GIS & Commodities: Moving from Qualitative to Quantitative Assessment
Jayson Stock, Chesapeake Energy, Chicago, IL; and J. Darr, J. Davis, and M. Russo

11:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 6
Special Topics in Energy Meteorology
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Andrew Clifton, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO
  11:30 AM
6.1
Does the continental United States have the weather to support large-scale wind and solar deployment?
Christopher T. Clack, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. MacDonald, A. Alexander, A. Dunbar, Y. Xie, and J. M. Wilczak
  11:45 AM
6.2
The Chesapeake Light Tower: A New Reference Facility for Offshore Renewable Energy
Joel W. Cline, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC; and W. J. Shaw and A. Clifton

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 7
Special Topics in Meteorology Part 2
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Mitchell T. Baer, Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC
  1:30 PM
7.1
  1:45 PM
7.2
Effects of changing atmospheric conditions on wind turbine performance
Andrew Clifton, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and P. Fleming, L. Kilcher, and J. K. Lundquist

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 8
Medium/Long Range Forecasting
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, Inc (EarthSat Wx), Gaithersburg, MD; Stephen Bennett, EarthRisk Technologies, San Diego, CA
  2:15 PM
8.2A
The Earth System Prediction Capability Program
Daniel P. Eleuterio, ONR, Arlington, VA; and J. C. Carman, S. A. Sandgathe, S. Benjamin, G. Jacobs, P. W. Jones, M. Peng, and J. G. Richman
  2:45 PM
8.3A
Long term coastal ocean forecasting
Gregg A. Jacobs, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and F. Aikman, D. Anderson, N. Banas, F. O. Bryan, R. Chant, E. Curchitser, S. DiMarco, J. P. Dunne, K. Fennel, M. A. M. Friedrichs, J. Harding, R. He, A. Lewitus, D. McGillicuddy, and O. Schofield

  3:00 PM
8.4
Seasonal Forecasts from the National Weather Service
Edward A. O'Lenic, NOAA, Riverdale, MD; and D. A. Unger

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 27
Medium-range, Sub-seasonal and Seasonal-scale Forecast Techniques and Modeling for Energy Demand Part 2
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; and the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
Cochairs: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, Inc (EarthSat Wx), Gaithersburg, MD; Stephen Bennett, EarthRisk Technologies, San Diego, CA; Andrew E. Mercer, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS
  3:30 PM
TJ27.1
Global Climate Change: An Energy Industry Perspective
Jon Davis, Chesapeake Energy, Chicago, IL; and J. Darr and M. S. Russo
  3:45 PM
TJ27.2
Empirical models of climate prediction on subseasonal to seasonal time scales
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO
  4:00 PM
TJ27.3
Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Beyond the Seasonal Scale
Philip W. Jones, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and C. M. Bitz, E. P. Chassignet, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke, W. Maslowski, and P. Posey
  4:30 PM
TJ27.5
  4:45 PM
TJ27.6
  5:00 PM
TJ27.7
Earth System Prediction Capability Demonstration Goal #1 – Improved 1-6 Week Forecasting of Extreme Weather Related to Blocking Events – Initial Directions
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and W. Higgins, A. Kumar, M. Chen, R. M. Dole, J. Perlwitz, M. Hoerling, T. M. Hamill, K. Pegion, J. M. Brown, R. Bleck, S. Sun, M. Fiorino, and M. S. Peng
  5:15 PM
TJ27.8

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Duce Symposium Banquet
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

Wednesday, 9 January 2013

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 9
Short Range Forecasting
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Larry K. Berg, PNNL, Richland, WA
  8:30 AM
9.1
Data Denial Experiments from the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)
James Wilczak, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Freedman, C. A. Finley, G. DiMego, K. Orwig, J. W. Cline, M. Marquis, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, J. Olson, K. L. Clawson, R. L. Coulter, and L. K. Berg
  8:45 AM
9.2
  9:00 AM
9.3
The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP): Results from the Southern Study Area
Jeff Freedman, AWS TruePower LLC, Albany, NY; and P. Beaucage, J. W. Zack, J. Manobianco, I. Flores, J. L. Schroeder, B. C. Ancell, K. Brewster, K. Orwig, V. Banunarayanan, S. Basu, J. Wilczak, J. W. Cline, M. Marquis, and L. K. Berg
  9:30 AM
9.5
Update on Estimating the Economic Impact of Short-Term Wind Forecast Improvements in ERCOT
Kirsten Orwig, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and V. Banunarayanan, S. Nasir, B. M. Hodge, and J. Freedman
  9:45 AM
9.6
Advances in wind and solar forecast skill from 2012-2013 assimilation and model improvements to the NOAA 3-km HRRR model
Stan Benjamin, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, J. Olson, C. Alexander, E. James, J. M. Brown, S. Weygandt, and J. Wilczak

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 10
Short Range Forecasting for Energy Supply/Demand - Part 2
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Julie K. Lundquist, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
  10:30 AM
10.1
Precision Wind Power Forecasting via Coupling of Turbulent-Scale Atmospheric Modelling with Machine Learning Methods
Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and J. Cipriani, A. P. Praino, J. Diaz, and J. R. Dorronsoro
  10:45 AM
10.2
Ensemble forecasting for wind power prediction in Northwestern China
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Pan, Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Y. Y. Cheng, J. Hu, S. Feng, and C. Liu

  11:00 AM
10.3
Short-term Numerical Forecasts Using WindTracer Lidar Data
Richard L. Carpenter Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; and B. L. Shaw, M. Margulis, K. S. Barr, T. Baynard, D. Yates, S. L. Thomas, and J. Sharp
  11:15 AM
10.4
Multi-model MOS for Solar Power Forecasting
G. A. van der Grijn, Meteo Consult B.V., Wageningen, Netherlands; and D. Malda and R. Mureau

11:45 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 11
Meteorological Observations for Renewable Energy Applications
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Julie K. Lundquist, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
  11:45 AM
11.1

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 12
Meteorological Observations for Renewable Energy Applications - Part 2
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Cegeon J. Chan, First Wind Energy, Boston, MA
  1:30 PM
12.1
Validating a Physical Model for Satellite Based Solar Resource Assessment
Manajit Sengupta, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and A. Habte, S. Wilcox, C. Molling, and A. K. Heidinger
  1:45 PM
12.2
In situ and remotely-sensed mean and turbulence characteristics of wind turbine wakes
Julie K. Lundquist, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. Bariteau, M. Boquet, M. E. Rhodes, and A. Clifton
  2:00 PM
12.3
Wind turbine wake characterization using long-range Doppler lidar
Matthew L. Aitken, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist, K. V. Hestmark, R. M. Banta, Y. L. Pichugina, and W. A. Brewer
  2:15 PM
12.4
Documenting Complex Flows in Wind Farms using the TTUKa Mobile Research Radars
Brian D. Hirth, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Poster Session 2
Energy Poster Session II
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
 
778
Regional and seasonal characteristics of forecast errors of downward shortwave radiation by the Japan Meteorological Agency mesoscale model for the forecast of a photovoltaic power production
Hideaki Ohtake, AIST, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. I. Shimose, J. G. D. S. Fonseca Jr., T. Takashima, T. Oozeki, and Y. Yamada

 
779
Improvement of the Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model for the Forecasting the Photovoltaic Power Production: Sensitivity Experiments of Radiation-Related Schemes
Ken-ichi Shimose, AIST, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and H. Ohtake, Y. Yamada, J. G. D. S. Fonseca Jr., T. Takashima, and T. Oozeki

 
780
A Climatology of Superrefractive Conditions for Assessing Wind Farm Impacts on Radars
Steven R. Chiswell, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC

Poster PDF (4.1 MB)

 
781
Global distributions and temporal variations of low-level wind speed maxima for Airborne Wind Energy applications
Cristina Lozej Archer, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and L. Delle Monache and D. Rife

Poster PDF (2.9 MB)

 
784
 
785
The extratropical transition of TC Dale (1996) and its impact on the early 1996-97 wintertime stratospheric circulation
Andrea L. Lang, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart

 
786
Comparison and Analysis of Wind Turbine Wake Interactions
Mallory Elise Flowers, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL; and E. S. Takle, D. A. Rajewski, and R. Doorenbos

 
788
Predictability of the Warm Core Eddy-Loop Current Separation in the Gulf of Mexico
Prasad G. Thoppil, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. Hogan and C. Rowley

 
791
Accuracy of Photodiode Pyranometers for Photovoltaic Applications
Manajit Sengupta, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and P. Gotseff and T. Stoffel

 
792
Solar Irraidiance Forecasting System
Thomas Connor, AER, Lexington, MA; and M. Gioioso

 
794
Benefits for the Wind Energy Industry from the WSR-88D's New Dual Polarization Capability
Tim Crum, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. Ciardi, J. B. Boettcher, M. J. Istok, R. J. Vogt, and A. Stern
Manuscript (2.3 MB)

Poster PDF (5.9 MB)

 
795
Estimating extreme gusts for wind turbine loads in tropical storms
Andrew Etringer, 3TIER Inc., Seattle, WA; and M. T. Stoelinga, C. Johanson, and M. Hendrickson

 
796
 
797
Response of the Great Plains Nocturnal Low-Level Jet (NLLJ) to Various Wind Energy Scenarios as Simulated in WRF
D. L. Gilbert, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and A. S. Adams

 
798
Solar Energy Irradiance and Electric Generation Forecasting
Stephen D. Jascourt, MDA Information Systems, Gaithersburg, MD; and D. Kirk-Davidoff, C. Cassidy, and L. Heitkemper

Poster PDF (760.4 kB)

 
800
Utilization of a High Resolution Weather and Impact Model to Predict Hurricane Irene
Brandon Hertell, Consolidated Edison Company of New York, New York, NY; and R. Derech, L. Treinish, A. P. Praino, H. Li, and J. Cipriani


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

4:00 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 13
Meteorological Observations for Renewable Energy Applications - Part 3
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Catherine A. Finley, WindLogics Inc., Grand Rapids, MN
  4:00 PM
13.1
CWEX-10/11: Overview of Meteorological Measurements in a Wind Farm
Eugene S. Takle, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and D. A. Rajewski, J. H. Prueger, S. Oncley, J. K. Lundquist, T. W. Horst, M. E. Rhodes, R. L. Pfeiffer, J. L. Hatfield, K. K. Spoth, and R. Doorenbos
  4:15 PM
13.2
Wind Turbine Wake Investigation from Surface Measurements during the 2010 and 2011 Crop Wind-Energy EXperiments (CWEX-10/11)
Daniel A. Rajewski, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and E. S. Takle, J. K. Lundquist, M. E. Rhodes, J. H. Prueger, S. P. Oncley, T. W. Horst, R. L. Pfeiffer, J. Hatfield, K. K. Spoth, and R. K. Doorenbos

4:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 14
Climate Scale Forecasting for Infrastructure Planning
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Somnath Baidya Roy, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana-Champaign, IL
  4:45 PM
14.2
Renewable energy resource assessments from a climatology of short-range High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecasts
Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, B. D. Jamison, and S. Benjamin
  5:00 PM
14.3
Climate scenarios of wind and solar resources in the 2040-2070 period for use by the NREL ReEDS model
Jeffrey H. Copeland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Ammann, W. Cheng, S. E. Haupt, and Y. Zhang
  5:15 PM
14.4

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


93rd AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)

Thursday, 10 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 1
Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Solar Irradiance and Power Forecasts (Part 1)
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Moderator: Melinda Marquis, NOAA, Boulder, CO
  8:30 AM
Introductory Remarks

  8:45 AM
Sue Haupt Presentation

  9:00 AM
IBM Presentation by Bri-Mathias Hodge

  9:15 AM
NCAR Presentation by Tressa Fowler
  9:30 AM
DOE Solar Forecasting by Kevin Lynn
  9:45 AM
Melinda Marquis Presentation
  10:00 AM
Panel Discussion

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Workshop Session 1
Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Solar Irradiance and Power Forecasts (Part 2)
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Melinda Marquis, NOAA, Boulder, CO
  11:00 AM
Metrics – List, Definition, Calculation Methods, Categories, Purpose

  11:15 AM
Discussion Questions

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Workshop Session 2
Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Solar Irradiance and Power Forecasts (Part 3)
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Melinda Marquis, NOAA, Boulder, CO
  1:30 PM
IBM Presentation by Hendrik Hamann

  1:45 PM
Sue Haupt Presentation

  2:00 PM
Baseline Forecast Accuracy Determination – Methods and Issues

  2:15 PM
Target Value Determination Process for each of the Metric

  2:30 PM
Concluding Remarks

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Levels 3 and 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


AMS 93rd Annual Meeting Adjourns