Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Beyond the Seasonal Scale

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice during 2007 brought increased attention to Arctic change and its consequences, such as the relocation of coastal communities, changes to ecosystems, opening of transport through the Arctic and opportunities for resource extraction. Improved prediction of regional Arctic ice concentration and thickness will be required for decisions on needed infrastructure, resource management and the staging of assets. As a demonstration project under the multi-agency Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC), we are exploring and assessing the predictability of sea ice properties from seasonal to interannual scales. In particular, we are using simulation ensembles to identify features that are predictable at longer timescales and to explore the sensitivity of predictions to initial state, forcing and model choices. We will describe our ongoing experiments and early results.