ESPC Decadal Variation Demonstration of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Earth System Prediction Capability is a program to meet broad but specific agency requirements for an earth system analysis and prediction framework to support one-day to decadal, global prediction at appropriate horizontal and vertical resolution including the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and space. These demonstrations also will help inform decision makers on future needed infrastructure and technologies as well as potential for improved national prediction capability.

One of these demonstrations focuses on Decadal Variation with an emphasis on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. A Science Team and Science Plan are being developed for this demonstration. Close collaboration with the US AMOC Science Team and the IPCC AR5 CMIP decadal prediction effort is sought. The Demonstration will support high resolution coupled models and reanalyses covering the first decade of the RAPID/MOCHA observations. The Demonstration hopes to leverage and supplement existing efforts of the US AMOC Science Team. The goal of the Demonstration is to show an initial capability for operational decadal prediction by 2018, with an emphasis on forecast capacity and metrics for what is predictable. First looks at the AMOC from an ocean reanalysis, and coupled climate simulations show qualitative agreement between the simulations and RAPID/MOCHA low frequency transports, but quantitative differences in the structure of the AMOC.

The Demonstration will provide the first steps towards developing a capacity coupled ocean-atmosphere decadal predictions with new metrics and measures for predictability.