Advances in wind and solar forecast skill from 2012-2013 assimilation and model improvements to the NOAA 3-km HRRR model

The 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) hourly updated experimental weather model is a cornerstone of the ongoing Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) sponsored by the US Department of Energy and NOAA to improve detailed forecast guidance for 50-150m wind and specifically, wind ramp events over that currently available from operational NOAA weather forecast models.

The experimental HRRR has been developed at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and is initialized hourly by data assimilation using latest atmospheric observations from profilers, radars, aircraft, surface, satellite, GPS, and other sources within an experimental version of 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) run at ESRL. ESRL also developed the current operational version of the RAP now running at NCEP's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), but the experimental RAP initializing the HRRR has been advanced further in response to WFIP and other applications of the HRRR for severe weather and aviation forecasting.

We will quickly review the key assimilation and modeling changes made to the RAP and HRRR during winter 2011-2012. These changes resulted in a major step forward for warm-season forecast accuracy from the HRRR. We will also describe the additional observational data sets now being assimilated to improve the HRRR. These include proprietary tower and nacelle observations that the private sector is beginning to provide to NOAA. NOAA will merge these additional data with other observational data streams, allowing improved guidance for the benefit of all.

In this talk, we will present new 2013 directions for assimilation and modeling for the HRRR in response to the 2012 evaluation for WFIP and other HRRR users.