419 Correlation of MOS guidance and verification of wind advisories in the Rio Grande Valley

Monday, 7 January 2013
Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Jason M. Straub, NOAA/NWSFO, Brownsville, TX

A reliable and efficient way of determining the potential for exceeding local wind advisory criteria is under evaluation at the National Weather Service in Brownsville, Texas. One such avenue for evaluation is the strict usage of Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance. The results of a comparison of MOS guidance from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model with observations of wind exceeding the advisory criteria will be presented. Using a threshold of 12 m s-1 for the NAM MOS resulted in a Probability of Detection of 0.89; a False Alarm Ratio of 0.27; and maximized Critical Success Index of 0.66. Using a slightly greater threshold of 13 m s-1 for the GFS MOS yielded somewhat better results: a Probability of Detection of 0.95; a False Alarm Ratio of 0.20; and a maximized Critical Success Index of 0.80. Plans to incorporate these results into operations at the NWS office will be discussed.
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