Damage Modeling at Pacific Gas & Electric: Methodology and Lessons Learned

Pacific Gas & Electric has developed a damage model to better prepare for and mitigate total risk from storms. The model predicts sustained outage counts, customer outage counts, timing of outages, and resource requirements necessary for restoration. The model forecast methodology is a man machine mix analogous to the process used in contemporary weather forecasting. The damage model combines 17 years of sustained outage data with 17 years of corresponding historical weather data to develop relationships used for prediction. Automated data preparation ensures the model can be updated often. Numerous tools and techniques have been developed to aid the forecaster in making the final forecast. The damage model has been under development for 3 years and fully operational for 2 years; performance history and lessons learned will be shared.