Seasonal Forecasts from the National Weather Service

Long-range forecasting has changed dramatically over the past decade. The biggest recent innovation is the application of ensembles of dynamical models to the problem. This paper gives an update on methods (evolving), skill (good for T, so-so for P), and value (crude estimate - value of T forecasts is relatively high, that of P forecasts, low) of operational 3-month temperature and precipitation forecasts. If deemed feasible by AMS, the presentation asks the audience for feedback on various issues, the results to be made available in some way to AMS members.