Information from the EPS median reduces the MAE for the forecast period between 3 and 10 days ahead. However, the bias increases when the EPS median is used, due to the differences in climatology between the operational model and EPS median. A Weibull correction can be applied to limit the increase in ME. The Weibull correction has a small beneficial effect on the MAE.
The main conclusions can be summarized as follows: Including a gradual transition towards the EPS median gives an improvement compared to the current forecast. A gradual transition from the deterministic forecast towards the EPS median gives better results than just using the EPS median value for the whole forecast period. Including a Weibull correction on top of the gradual transition to the EPS median further improves the forecast compared to the case without a Weibull correction.