Panel Discussion 1 Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Solar Irradiance and Power Forecasts (Part 1)

Thursday, 10 January 2013: 8:30 AM-9:45 AM
Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Melinda Marquis, NOAA, NOAA/Esrl, Boulder, CO

Step 1: Achieving Consensus on (a) Standard Forecast Accuracy Measurement Metrics, (b) Baseline Estimation Process, and (c) Target Value Determination Methods for Forecast Metrics In support of the DOE SunShot Initiative, the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) is partnering with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the solar energy enterprise to improve solar forecasts. In a funding opportunity announcement (FOA) issued in the Spring of 2012, DOE is funding activities that address three key steps in improving solar forecasts: (1) Activity A: Development of a standardized set of metrics, and determination of the baseline value and target value for these metrics; (2) Activity B: Conduct research that yields a transformational improvement in weather models and methods for forecasting solar irradiance, application of this research to the development of solar power forecasts, and validation of these forecasts to ensure that target values are met; and (3) Activity C: Incorporation of solar forecasts into the system operations of one or more utilities or independent system operators, and an evaluation of the forecasts’ economic and reliability benefits, using the standardized metrics. The proposed workshop at AMS 2013 is intended to serve as one of the key starting points for Activity A in the FOA – Developing a standard set of metrics, baseline and target values. This workshop is intended to be the first in a series of workshops aimed at soliciting the input of stakeholders in the solar forecasting industry in a comprehensive manner. The anticipated participants of this workshop will be meteorologists, solar forecasting industry stakeholders, and utility representatives. The goal of this workshop is to solicit input from the participants and engage in “deep dive” discussions on the merits and demerits of various metrics, baseline and target value determination processes. The deliverable from this workshop is expected to be a suggested list of standard metrics grouped into various categories based on their purpose, and possible processes for estimating forecast accuracy baselines and target values for metrics. The workshop is expected to be between two to four hours in length. Given the focus of AMS on energy/renewable resource forecasting, and increasing utility participation at AMS conferences, this workshop will serve as a timely effort to achieve both of these goals.

8:30 AM
Introductory Remarks

8:45 AM
Sue Haupt Presentation

9:00 AM
IBM Presentation by Bri-Mathias Hodge

9:15 AM
NCAR Presentation by Tressa Fowler
9:30 AM
DOE Solar Forecasting by Kevin Lynn
9:45 AM
Melinda Marquis Presentation
10:00 AM
Panel Discussion

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