Computer Simulation of Nuclear Pollutant Diffusion from Shimane Nuclear Power Plants and Development of an Evacuation Strategy in the Event of a Nuclear Incident

Beginning from Tohoku (northeastern) Earthquake on March 11, an accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant resulted in a substantial release of radioactivity to the environment. The accident forced a large number of residents to evacuate from surrounding areas. Moreover, the nuclear incident was life-threatening for the elderly and for people with serious illnesses who were confined in hospital or nursing homes. Strikingly, the causes of death were not directly attributed to radiation exposure but to problems encountered during evacuation. Using nuclear diffusion data from the Fukushima incident, we simulated nuclear pollutant dispersion using computer software A2C in an area of Tottori and Shimane Prefectures surrounding the Shimane Nuclear Power Plant. We generated a model for the spread of nuclear pollutants around the Emergency Planning Zone, i.e. EPZ. From these findings, we proposed evacuation strategies for residents near the power plant to ensure a safe and reliable escape from nuclear pollutants. Our recommendations include: 1) immediate evacuation from PAZ area (within 5km), 2) securing indoor shelter in the area of the UPZ (from 5km to 30km) and preparations to evacuate further outwards from the nuclear plant site, 3) daytime evacuation within a 30km area after considering wind direction and velocity, and 4) preparation of a planned evacuation strategy that identifies secure facilities for weaker people in the event of a disaster.